What if the Nintendo 64 had used the 64DD instead of cartridges?

 

Immediately after completing my first gaming article on this blog comparing the Game Boy Super Mario Land/Wario Land series to the Game Gear Sonic the Hedgehog series, I came up with another concept worthy of an in-depth feature.  This time, instead of comparing different video games, I wanted to ask a rather interesting hypothetical question that had been floating around in my head for a long time now:

What if the Nintendo 64 had released using the 64DD storage format instead of cartridges?

Forget add-ons.  I'm talking about using the front-loading floppy disks as the default storage medium right from the start.

The conventional wisdom in the gaming community is that the Nintendo 64 ultimately lost to the PlayStation because Nintendo stubbornly stuck to cartridges instead of CDs.  Cartridges were more expensive to produce and had a limited storage capacity, which drove away developers and doomed the Nintendo 64 to a rather small library of games.

While Nintendo never appeared to seriously consider using CDs for its 64-bit console, it did have the alternative 64DD format available as an option from the start, and I think those magnetic disks would have altered the system's course one way or another.  So let's take the alternate path at the fork in the road with Nintendo choosing the 64DD over cartridges, and then see where that leads us.

Would more developers have flocked to Nintendo's first full-3D console?  Would this have changed the system's fate?  Would the PlayStation still have reigned supreme during that generation?

Luckily, I was able to experience the Nintendo 64 firsthand during its heyday and during my prime gaming years (ages 12-17), plus I was able to see how other people my age (and even adults) reacted to the system.  For better and for worse, I witnessed all of the positive and negative responses to the 64-bit console, including in the gaming press at the time.  While I thoroughly enjoyed the system, I was well aware of the various complaints leveled against it, and I certainly had a few of my own.

With that experience in mind, and with my additional experience from every other console generation starting with the NES, I should have a sufficient foundation to answer this question.  I'll not only be drawing upon my own experience from the mid/late 90s gaming scene, but from various gaming articles during that time as well.

My analysis and ultimate conclusion will primarily involve a business perspective, looking at whether this alternative storage format could have affected hardware and software sales in some appreciable manner.  Of course, video games are in the entertainment business, and so they basically need to be fun.  Therefore, my analysis will necessarily include a customer perspective as well to determine whether gamers would have cared at all about using the different 64DD format.

Although I'm not allowing myself to modify any other features on the Nintendo 64 aside from the storage format, I will be considering what possible or foreseeable changes could have resulted from the use of magnetic disks.  So the system's power remains the same; it still has the same launch date and name (sorry Ultra 64 fans); the controller remains unchanged; and Sony and Sega still release the PlayStation and Saturn at the same time and in the same formats.

But before I dive into this hypothetical scenario, we'll need a bit of a history lesson.

THE BASE SYSTEM

The Nintendo 64 was developed as a partnership between super computer company Silicon Graphics, Inc. (SGI) and Nintendo after Sega had turned down SGI's offer to use its technology.  The partnership had been cemented as early as 1993 and was known as Project Reality.

Up to this point, gaming consoles had generally doubled their processing power each generation, going from 8-bit, to 16-bit, and then to 32-bit by way of several companies (Sega, Sony, Phillips, Panasonic, and even Nintendo with the Virtual Boy).  Though Atari had claimed to release the first 64-bit system with the Jaguar, it actually used two 32-bit processers acting together, and the results were still unimpressive when compared to Sega's and Sony's 32-bit machines.

The basic idea was that the Nintendo 64 would skip a generation by jumping straight into the 64-bit realm (its CPU was in fact 64-bit), and according to the gaming press at the time, Sega and Sony were both initially worried about the Nintendo 64's alleged power as it was still believed that having more powerful hardware would secure you better sales.

Like with the Wii, Nintendo first showed off the Nintendo 64's console design before debuting the system's radically new controller several months later at the Space World 1995 show in Japan.  The original U.S. name for the system was slated to be the Nintendo "Ultra 64," but around early 1996 Nintendo settled on a uniform worldwide name of "Nintendo 64" featuring a colorful 3D "N" logo.

The June 1995 issue of Nintendo Power proclaimed to
have the "first published photos" of the new 64-bit system.

Nintendo was quite ambitious with the Nintendo 64's development, promising a maximum $250 price point years in advance and selecting a handful of "exclusive" developers to receive early access to the system.  This Ultra 64 "Dream Team" was initially comprised of 10 officially announced development partners, but was later expanded to 16 in total.  These companies were supposed to help fill out the system's launch library with premier software.

The April 1995 issue of Nintendo Power disclosed the initial "exclusive" Dream Team.
How many Nintendo 64 games can you even identify as having come from these developers?

Though Nintendo had initially planned to the launch the Nintendo 64 for Christmas 1995, the release date was pushed back at least twice in Japan and America until the console ultimately released in the U.S. on September 29, 1996, a full year after Sony's CD-based PlayStation, and more than a year after Sega's CD-based Saturn.  Sticking true to its word, Nintendo released the Nintendo 64 not simply at a $250 price point, but at a more attractive $199 price tag to help compete with the recently reduced prices for the Saturn and PlayStation.

Unlike the NES and SNES preceding it, the Nintendo 64 launch bundle only included a single controller and no pack-in game.  Further, only two games were initially available: the system's killer app, Super Mario 64, and Pilotwings 64.  However, a few other games arrived in late 1996 to help fill out the system's holiday release window such as Wave Race 64, Killer Instinct Gold, Mortal Kombat Trilogy, and Star Wars: Shadows of the Empire.

But despite Nintendo's lofty promises regarding its Dream Team, the holiday 1996 software lineup for the Nintendo 64 was sparse, being carried almost entirely by Super Mario 64.  In fact, most of the supposed Dream Team members released no launch window games whatsoever.  The "exclusive" Dream Team may have actually backfired by driving away other developers who weren't given the same early access.

Even with its sparse 1996 lineup, the Nintendo 64 launch was nothing short of a resounding success in America (and even Japan).  Fueled almost entirely by Super Mario 64, which sold at nearly a one-to-one ratio with the system, the Nintendo 64 briskly outsold both the Saturn and PlayStation within their comparable launch periods.  Within its first four months, the Nintendo 64 sold 500,000 units, and within its first year, it sold 3.6 million units.  Nintendo announced that it would be increasing production to keep up with the demand.

An EGM article recites the sales data with some added context.

I can personally attest to the Nintendo 64's launch popularity.  The system was sold out at major retailers in Southern California up through Christmas, and my own mother had a terrible time securing the sought-after system for me.  Finally, in a stroke of luck, she happened to visit our nearby Best Buy on the day it had received more Nintendo stock, and the employees were handing out tickets for people waiting in line to purchase the Nintendo 64 (like a scene straight out of the movie Jingle All The Way).  She was lucky enough to receive a ticket, and I got my own Nintendo 64 for Christmas along with Super Mario 64 and Wave Race 64, which I still have to this day.

Notoriously, and to much criticism, the Nintendo 64 once again utilized top-loading cartridges which featured a storage capacity ranging from approximately 4mb to an eventual 64mb.  However, only a few games - Resident Evil 2, Pokemon Stadium 2, Conker's Bad Fur Day, and allegedly, the European version of Paper Mario - ever utilized a 64mb cartridge, and only late in the system's life.  Most games ranged from 8mb to 32mb in size.

Though game save files could potentially be stored on the cartridges themselves (if the developer chose to do so), for the first time Nintendo offered external memory cards which plugged directly into the controller and which could hold save files and other information, allowing you to use your saved data on another Nintendo 64 or with another copy of the game (which was great for rentals).  Numerous third-party developers actually required these "Controller Paks" to save game data instead of storing this information on the cartridge, probably as a cost-saving measure due to the expensive cartridge manufacturing process.

The Nintendo 64 also featured a new RAM expansion slot situated in between the Power and Reset buttons.  The promised RAM "Expansion Pak" was then released in 1998 and increased the system's total RAM from 4mb to 8mb.  Several games utilized the Expansion Pak to improve the graphics or even the display resolution; some outright required it; and the Expansion Pak was even bundled for free with Donkey Kong 64 because that was the only way Rare could keep the game from crashing on the system.

The system's built-in four-player support became one of its defining features, boosting U.S. sales thanks to the apparent endless supply of multiplayer games including Mario Kart 64, GoldenEye, Star Fox 64, Mario Party, Diddy Kong Racing, Donkey Kong 64, Super Smash Bros., Perfect Dark, and a slew of other games.  Whereas Sony would require multitaps up through the PS2 generation for anything beyond two players (after which wireless controllers would render multitaps obsolete), Nintendo dominated the multiplayer arena up until the first Xbox with its online support and new Halo titles.

But despite early sales indications, the Nintendo 64 was not the juggernaut it initially appeared to be.  The system began losing steam after its first year on the market while the PlayStation rapidly gained ground due to its ever-increasing library of games (featuring lower price points); a more comfortable controller; and more mature and sophisticated marketing by Sony.  Also, the PlayStation simply looked more like a standard electronic device that adults would have in their living room (such as a VCR or CD player), whereas the Nintendo 64 had a slightly more toy-like appearance.

Developers began fleeing from the Nintendo 64 in droves for a variety of reasons including limited storage capacity for cartridges; higher price tags for cartridge games; lower profit margins; more complex system architecture; higher licensing fees; and perhaps even pent-up frustration with Nintendo's prior and ongoing treatment of software developers.

A Dream Team member's parent company criticizes Nintendo and cancels
a game for the new system in the July 1996 issue of Next Generation magazine.

Most notably, Squaresoft, the massive RPG developer that had been a critical supporter of the SNES with its Final Fantasy games and the recent Nintendo-collaboration title Super Mario RPG, completely abandoned Nintendo (including even its Game Boy line) in 1996 to produce titles for Sony's new PlayStation, due in large part to the limited storage space of the Nintendo 64 cartridges.  This occurred even though Square had initially suggested that the next Final Fantasy game would arrive on Nintendo's new system and had shown supposed demo footage of the title.

Not only did Square completely ditch Nintendo, but it also teamed up with Sony's marketing department to brutally mock and denigrate its former business partner for continuing to use cartridges - all while pushing its own massive new hit.

Brutal.

Square appeared to lead a mass exodus from Nintendo, with numerous developers avoiding the Nintendo 64 altogether in order to pursue a more favorable business relationship with upstart Sony.  Even Sega, with its floundering (at least in the U.S.) Saturn, received more favorable third-party support.  Various 2D games, including tournament fighters, shmups, and even the classic Mega Man series, appeared on both the Saturn and PlayStation (particularly in Japan) while the Nintendo 64 was left out in the cold.

Some developers eventually came back to the Nintendo 64 in a limited fashion, such as Capcom with its late ports of Resident Evil 2 and Mega Man Legends, and Blizzard with its port of Starcraft.  Konami also made decent showings on the system with two versions of its innovative new 3D Castlevania game, as well as various sports games, but its mega-hit, Metal Gear Solid, and its genre-defining 2D action-RPG, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, were nowhere to be found on the Big N, in addition to numerous other Konami games.  While helpful, these remaining developers were simply unable to fill the huge void left by other companies.

More than anything, the Nintendo 64 suffered from a severe RPG drought at a time when the genre was taking off massively in the U.S., thanks in large part to Final Fantasy VII.  Arguably, only a few RPGs were ever released on the system in the U.S. - Quest 64, frequently ridiculed as an embarrassing kiddie game (though an evidently profitable one), Paper Mario, and Aidyn Chronicles: The First Mage (the late release Ogre Battle 64 was more of a strategy game).  The situation was so bad that gamers and even gaming publications would frequently debate whether The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time should be classified as an RPG just so Nintendo fans could have a hit game to hang their hat on.

In the November 1996 issue, Nintendo Power magazine suddenly announced that its dedicated
RPG section, Epic Center, which was first introduced in March 1995 due to the flood of
SNES RPGs, would no longer make regular monthly appearances.  A sign of things to come.

The Nintendo 64 ended up being carried largely by Nintendo itself and its partly owned second-party developer, Rare, with their various 3D platforming and action games, as well the burgeoning console FPS genre, largely brought forth by the hit 1997 game GoldenEye.  Other studios found success on the system as well with their own FPS titles (both original and PC ports), pro wrestling games (quite popular at the time), party/multiplayer games, sports games, and various arcade-style racing games (including direct arcade ports).  But other genres remained lacking, particularly in comparison to the PlayStation.

Additionally, even though the Nintendo 64 was an overall more powerful system than the PlayStation, the general consumer market didn't seem to view it that way.  Since the Nintendo 64 was more difficult to program for and hampered by limited cartridge storage space, quite a few developers initially had trouble taking advantage of the system's strengths.  As a result, several games overused fog to hide their terrible draw distances while also utilizing low-polygon models, such as Turok: Dinosaur Hunter and Monster Truck Madness 64.

While other games, particularly first-party titles, took better advantage of the hardware, the most popular Nintendo 64 games still featured bright, colorful characters and environments with low-resolution textures stretched over large distances (thanks to the system's limited texture cache), creating the impression of an underpowered "kiddie" console.  It simply did not matter that Super Mario 64 looked better than Crash Bandicoot while also being fully 3D; that Wave Race 64's water physics were more impressive than Jet Moto; or that World Driver Championship graphically outperformed Gran Turismo 1 and 2 while featuring more cars on screen and offering a high-resolution mode without the Expansion Pak.

Banjo-Kazooie vs. Metal Gear Solid.  Comparisons like these frequently occurred.

Average consumers looking at the colorful worlds of Super Mario 64 or Banjo-Kazooie compared them to the more realistic graphical styles of Gran Turismo or Metal Gear Solid and often walked away with the impression that "PlayStation games look better."  The PlayStation's frequent use of prerendered video clips, higher-quality sound files, and fancy boot-up screens also helped to create this impression.  In fact, the big-budget TV commercials for Final Fantasy VII didn't even appear to use gameplay footage, but instead featured computer-generated cutscenes.  Meanwhile, Nintendo marketed games like Super Mario 64 and The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time by showing actual gameplay footage.

After years of Nintendo bragging that its 64-bit system would trounce anything put out by Sony or Sega, it had all been for naught as Sony had actually convinced a large portion of the market that it had the more powerful and sophisticated hardware.  Nintendo had lost at its own marketing game.

The older gamer, now in his 20s and with less time on his hands, found a new home in the PlayStation, with various titles connecting to his real-life activities, such as simulation racing games and extreme sports titles involving skateboarding, snowboarding and wakeboarding.  Ironically, and quite tragically for Nintendo, SNES fans were also able to continue their 16-bit experiences on the new PlayStation thanks in large part to its SNES-inspired controller and sequels to classic franchises such as Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, and Mega Man.

GamePro magazine identifies the obvious problem in its October 1998 issue.

I could clearly see the writing on the wall when my friend's older brother (including his own circle of friends) went directly from the SNES to the PlayStation just to play these types of games, and especially when my own high school included a Tony Hawk's Pro Skater competition during a pep rally using the PlayStation version of the game instead of the Nintendo 64 version.

When it was all said and done, Nintendo finished in second place in the U.S. against Sony's new machine while Sega dropped to a distant third place.  The PlayStation ultimately sold around 40 million units in the U.S., whereas the Nintendo 64 sold approximately 20 million units in North America, meaning that U.S. sales were probably around 18-19 million.  While this was fairly close to the SNES's U.S. total of 20 million units, it was still around half of what the PlayStation achieved.

With only 296 games released in North America (compared to PlayStation's 1,278), the Nintendo 64 had clearly devastated Nintendo's relationship with developers and caused a massive generational shift in the market.  Sony fans and the gaming press began chanting that "Nintendo is doomed," a mantra that would linger around even through the highly successful Wii era.

In Japan, the situation was more dire.  The Nintendo 64 had not only been outsold by the PlayStation, but by the Saturn as well, which achieved a surprising second-place position with roughly 6 million units sold (compared to the Nintendo 64's 5.5 million units), and approximately 1,000 total games released.

And as we all know by now, the next generation would fare even worse for Nintendo.

THE 64DD

At the November 1995 Shoshinkai trade show in Japan, Nintendo President Hiroshi Yamauchi announced that the Nintendo 64 would eventually receive an optional "Bulky Drive" add-on that would give the system dual storage methods.  Although no specific information was given, the gaming press quickly reported that this add-on device would likely use some sort of floppy disks.

The 64DD (standing for "disk drive" or "dynamic drive"), as it was later known, wasn't officially unveiled until the following November 1996 Shoshinkai show in Japan.  According to the gaming press, the 64DD was met with a very positive reception, and allegedly, was even the star of the show.

Like the preceding Famicom Disk System from the 8-bit era, the 64DD attached to the bottom of its main console and loaded proprietary floppy disks through the front port.  But unlike the 3.5-inch, 1.44mb floppy disks common on computers during this time, the 64DD disks could store up to 64mb of information.  While this still paled in comparison to the 650mb of storage available on CDs, Nintendo touted two specific benefits to its disk drive: faster load times compared to CDs (more than twice as fast as the Saturn or PlayStation), and rewriteability.

Just how fast were the load times?  Based on official but unreleased 64DD copies of Super Mario 64, there was barely much of a difference from the cartridge version.  A few seconds at most.

Though the 64DD required the Expansion Pak to operate, the add-on did not increase the processing power of the Nintendo 64.  It merely provided a different storage method, as well as an internal clock that could be used for games (much like the GameCube).  It also featured a built-in enhanced audio and font library.

Nintendo Power provides details regarding the 64DD in its January 1997 issue.

The 64DD's faster loading times were of course self-explanatory, but with regard to rewriteability, Nintendo had to provide details as to how this could affect upcoming games.  According to Nintendo, approximately 32mb of the 64DD disks could be set aside by developers for storing additional data specifically created by players.  What kind of data?  A few different idea were floated around, but concepts such as updating a sports game's roster each year, custom-building courses in racing games, and even mapping your own face in game were specifically discussed or shown (see the above article scan).  Generally, if it was something that exceeded the capabilities of an external memory card, the 64DD provided the ideal means to achieve it.

But this wasn't the limit of the 64DD's benefits.  Harkening back to Yamauchi's initial talk of a dual storage method, developers could initially release a game on cartridge and then release later updates or expansions on 64DD disks.  Thus, developers were given three options: release a cartridge game only; release a 64DD game only; or release a cartridge game with an eventual 64DD expansion.  Under the third scenario, the cartridge would have to be inserted into the main system so that the 64DD expansion disk could alter its contents.

All of these benefits were eventually promised to arrive to U.S. consumers for a mere $90 price tag.  And the proprietary disks themselves?  According to an article published by IGN64 in early 1998, disk-based games would only cost between $30-$40, thanks in large part to their much cheaper manufacturing costs compared to cartridges. (Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20010211134508/http://ign64.ign.com/news/1832.html).

Several high-profile games were announced to be in development for the 64DD including a sequel to Super Mario 64, the tentatively titled Zelda 64 (as well as its later planned expansion dubbed "Ura Zelda"), Earthbound 64, Street Fighter III, Darkstalkers III, and a new Sim City game. (Sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20010211011654/http://ign64.ign.com/news/562.html; https://www.ign.com/articles/1997/03/27/street-fighter-iii-aims-for-64dd).  Even Final Fantasy VII was considered for the 64DD, though it never really moved beyond the initial planning stages.  The 64DD was also slated to receive an external modem and a mouse, though these types of peripherals could have functioned just fine with the base system, much as they did on the SNES.

Shigeru Miyamoto talks about the 64DD Ocarina of Time expansion dubbed

Ura Zelda in the February 1999 issue of Next Generation magazine.

The gaming press would not stop fawning over the planned add-on and how it could extend the life of the Nintendo 64, and I couldn't help but be incredibly excited at the prospect of the device.  I had never purchased a system add-on before, and the idea of modifying games sounded like fun.  Plus, the 64DD would only cost $90, and the games would be cheaper than cartridges, which were often $60 brand new.  I would have easily shelled out the money for one of these things, but unfortunately, it was not meant to be.

In a December 1997 interview with The 64Dream magazine, Shigeru Miyamoto summarized the benefits of the add-on, but also identified one of the ongoing problems.  "The 64DD was originally meant as an alternative to CD-ROM. When it comes to the future of gaming media, Nintendo will continue to make cartridges, but we concluded that DD was a better option than CD for expanding the range of gameplay. It would have been easier to understand if the DD was already included when the N64 first came out. It’s getting harder to explain after the fact. (laughs) Here’s the difference between each media: CD holds a lot of data, DD holds a moderate amount of data and backs the data up, and ROMs hold the least data and process the fastest. By attaching a DD to the game console, we can drastically increase the number of possible genres." (Source: https://yomuka.wordpress.com/2013/03/29/itoi-miyamoto-interview-64dd/).

As each year went by Nintendo kept delaying the release of the 64DD, stating that it would arrive when it was ready, and that Japan would receive it first.  Meanwhile, cartridge capacities kept increasing to the point they eventually matched the 64DD's storage space, and nearly every 64DD project was either moved to a cartridge (such as Ocarina of Time) or cancelled (Earthbound 64, Super Mario 64 2, Ura Zelda).

Finally, on December 13, 1999, after the next generation had already begun with the Sega Dreamcast, Nintendo released the 64DD exclusively in Japan.  The add-on was initially available only through a custom service whereby customers would receive new games via mail, in addition to a one-year internet subscription for the device.  Limited quantities of the 64DD and its games were eventually made available for purchase in stores.

The 64DD received the previously discussed accessories, as well as some newer ones, including a mouse, keyboard, modem cartridge, and an audio/video capture cartridge.  The system could connect to a dedicated internet service named Randnet, which eventually shut down in February of 2001.  Only 10 games total were released (in a staggered fashion) for the 64DD, the most notable of which were the F-Zero X Expansion Kit, the long-promised Sim City 64, and some sequels to Mario Paint titled Mario Artist.  The system also required the Expansion Pak to operate, as previously reported.

In the end, the 64DD only sold about 15,000 units, making it an absolute commercial failure along the lines of the Virtual Boy, and a lamentable example of what could have been, but what ultimately wasn't.

LET'S ALTER HISTORY

My own crude mockup of a Nintendo 64 with a built-in disk drive.

Since Nintendo had developed the concept for the 64DD as early as 1995, let's hypothetically assume that the company decides to abandon its cartridge ambitions entirely and solidify the system as disk-only no later than the end of 1995.  Nintendo will publicly justify this change based on the unnecessary complexity arising from a dual-storage system and developer complaints regarding cartridges (in reality, Nintendo won't care what other developers think.  The company will simply be listening to Shigeru Miyamoto, who says he wants to work with the disk system).  This should still provide Nintendo and developers with enough notice to prepare for the 1996 holiday season.

Considering that Wave Race 64 was still being demoed using boats and rudimentary course designs during the November 1995 Shoshinkai show, and that the fully revised version was available for release in Japan by September 1996, I'd say this is a sufficient amount of time.  While it is hard to predict how or if this change would affect Super Mario 64 or Pilotwings 64, it is suffice to say that Nintendo would not have delayed the titles just to incorporate some rewriteable game features.

Also, since the 64DD add-on was only supposed to cost $90, and since we have removed the cartridge slot and any necessary supporting cartridge components, the Nintendo 64 should still release at a $199 price point, or at the worst, $250, which is what Nintendo promised all along.  No consumer backlash should result.  The Nintendo 64 launch will still be successful.

Before looking beyond the established launch, however, we first have to take a deeper dive into more detailed business aspects, as well as some technical issues.  As previously noted, the 64DD disks by default offered 64mb of storage space, no qualifications added.  While it is true that cartridges eventually matched this storage capacity, the comparison is not so simple.

Cartridges are based upon an entirely different business model from optical disks (CDs, DVDs, etc.) and floppy disks.  Cartridges contain their own circuit boards with custom ROM chips manufactured to specific storage specifications, and the game's data apparently has to be written into the cartridge during the manufacturing process.  Storage options are typically available in multiples of two (4mb, 8mb, 16mb, 32mb, 64mb), but sometimes they come in off sizes, such as 40mb.  The higher the storage capacity, the higher the cost to manufacture the cartridge.  Thus, if a developer has a limited budget, it may not be able to shell out or secure the funds for a 32mb Nintendo 64 cartridge, and may instead have to operate within the constraints of an 8mb or 16mb cartridge.

The "guts" of a Nintendo 64 cartridge.

For an example of how this affected developers, look no further than Double Dragon Advance.  The game's planner, Muneki Ebinuma, wanted to use the largest 256mb Game Boy Advance cartridge, but was stuck with the smallest size, 32mb, in order to sell the game in America for a low price.  As a result, more than half of the game's planned content was scrapped, and it ended up simply being an expanded (but very fun) version of the original arcade game. (Source: https://doubledragon.kontek.net/features/ddacommentary.html).  Nintendo 64 developers were affected in the same way because they operated under the same cartridge-based business model.

Optical and floppy disks, on the other hand, are mass produced in standard sizes and in blank formats by manufacturers, who can then burn or write the game's data at a later time.  The result is not only a much lower manufacturing cost, but a faster turnaround time as well.  Nintendo 64 cartridges reportedly took at least 8 weeks to manufacture, whereas CDs were produced and ready to go in a matter of days.

Also, because of the long lead times necessary for cartridge production, Nintendo 64 developers had to carefully project the number of copies they expected their games to sell.  If they underestimated the demand for their upcoming title, they could lose out on additional sales as stores waited for them to manufacture more copies to replenish their stock.  But if they overestimated their game's popularity, they could eat the costs on unsold copies, leading to a situation like E.T. on the Atari 2600.

The December 1996 issue of Next Generation magazine contained the manufacturing costs.

The 64DD floppy disks were basically confirmed to fall within this more desirable business model of CDs.  In a February 1997 interview with IGN64, Nintendo stated: "The economic model for 64DD games presents publishers with less risk up front, a higher profit margin, and the possibility of creating data-rich games (sports games, RPGs, etc.) that can be updated annually." (https://web.archive.org/web/20010211135514/http://ign64.ign.com/news/563.html).  And as we know from another IGN64 article mentioned previously, 64DD games were only supposed to cost $30-$40 brand new.

A 64DD magnetic disk.  It is designed like and functions similar to the standard
1.44mb PC floppy disks, while being only slightly larger in dimensions.

So by switching to a disk-based system, Nintendo has increased the available storage space from a starting point of 8mb or 16mb to an immediate 64mb; lowered production costs; increased profit margins; lowered game prices; reduced risk; and even offered the possibility of multi-disk games and a limited form of expansions.

As a consequence of Nintendo removing the cartridge slot, it is no longer possible to release a separate disk expansion to an existing game since that setup requires two games to be inserted into the console and read simultaneously (the base cartridge game, such as Ocarina of Time, and the expansion disk that alters it).  The 64DD can't read two disks simultaneously.  However, there is a partial workaround.  If a game doesn't take up all 64mb of disk storage space, a developer can simply write the expansion data to game's disk at a later time, so long as the expansion doesn't exceed the remaining available space.  But this is a trivial issue since separate expansion disks are not the main draw of the 64DD.

The immediate result of this disk-based system is that third parties no longer have to operate under many of the prior business and technological constraints.  The tiered system of storage space where you pay more to go higher is gone.  Everyone gets 64mb.  While Nintendo's licensing fees would probably still be higher than Sony's, it wouldn't prove to be much of an issue compared to other concerns.

Retailers and gamers will also be happier with the change.  Aside from their very attractive lower price point, the magnetic disks also take up less shelf space because they come in protective plastic cases that are roughly half the size of Nintendo 64 cartridge boxes.  More shelf space means more room for different titles, and a greater variety of products for shoppers.  Collectors also don't have worry about flimsy cardboard boxes anymore.

64DD games came in protective plastic cases, similar to CD games.

We should immediately expect more developers to jump on board with Nintendo 64 development, thanks in large part to the more attractive development environment, which means more games being released during the system's first full year on the market.  I expect at least 10-20 additional games to arrive during this period because of the built-in 64DD.

However, there will still be some setbacks.  The basic hardware design hasn't changed, and as noted in the orange Next Gen magazine clipping pictured above, developers are still going to have that initial difficulty programming on the system's more complicated architecture.  Like before, Nintendo will have to iron out those problems, so the first wave of games still won't look as good as later releases.  Turok: Dinosaur Hunter will probably have that ever-present fog again.

The Nintendo 64's colorful, kid-oriented branding also won't be as attractive as the original, more sophisticated Ultra 64 design.  The same goes for the colored buttons on the controller.  There's a reason the U.S. version of the SNES controller had a more muted color scheme; it was more mature.  And the Nintendo 64 controller will still be uncomfortable and somewhat off-putting, which is why the three-pong design was never duplicated on any other systems.  The built-in 64DD will not overcome the notorious kiddie stigma afflicting Nintendo this generation.

The slicker, more sophisticated Ultra 64 branding possessed greater mass market appeal.

But the increased storage space will be helpful.  More space means more characters, more cars, more levels, more music tracks, more prerendered videos (albeit, likely compressed), and probably higher quality audio files.  We're still not near CD-level storage capacity, but imagine Top Gear Rally with 15-20 courses instead of only 5, more cars, and higher quality sound (the game oddly used 8-bit sound files).  Imagine better ports of Killer Instinct 1 and 2 featuring improved animations and models compared to Killer Instinct Gold (if these hamstrings were in fact caused by limited cartridge space), as well as the prerendered cutscenes being restored.  Multiplatform games like Mortal Kombat Trilogy will now be improved with better sound and restored content in their Nintendo 64 versions, ending up much closer to their PlayStation counterparts.

I would have loved a 64-bit Killer Instinct port with the cutscenes and high-quality voice samples restored.

The third-party exodus started by Square (who I'll get to in a moment) will not be quite as bad thanks to the improved business model provided by the magnetic disks.  Companies that stuck around in a limited fashion for the Nintendo 64 will probably alter their stance toward the system and release more multi-platform titles, such as those highly coveted Capcom and Konami games including Street Fighter, Mega Man, and maybe even Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (though it was no big hit on the PlayStation).  Street Fighter III and Darkstalkers III were both initially confirmed to be in development for the 64DD add-on in 1997, so we can reasonably expect games like that to arrive on the revised Nintendo 64 based on its reduced risk factors.

Resident Evil 2 made a late appearance on cartridge, so it is possible that other Resident Evil titles could arrive on disk, though there is no guarantee that all of the titles will make it to Nintendo's system.  In general, Nintendo should see a scenario closer to the GameCube era where an increased number of third parties release ports for the Big N, though with occasional content removed.

But what about the elephant in the room, Square?  Unfortunately for Nintendo, Square will not stick around with this revised system because the developer's fundamental issues have not been resolved.  The 64mb disks remain woefully insufficient to support Square's cinematic ambitions.  Final Fantasy VII didn't simply arrive on a 650mb CD.  It arrived on three of them.  There's no way for the magnetic disks to match that, even using multiple disks.

In addition, Square's early Nintendo 64 development was not working out well for them.  The director of Square claimed that, "we made a 2,000-count polygon version of Behemoth for the Nintendo 64, but when we rendered and animated it, the framerate was way too low. To properly display Behemoth with that technology, we needed 2,000 polygons, but it was a little too much for the hardware. That was part of the problem with choosing Nintendo." (Source: https://www.polygon.com/a/final-fantasy-7).

The famous 1995 Final Fantasy demo, supposedly for the Nintendo 64,

was in fact running on SGI Onyx workstations, not Nintendo hardware.

While the Nintendo 64 is more powerful than the PlayStation (as shown by certain multiplatform games such as Vigilante 8, or technical marvels like Perfect Dark and World Driver Championship), we have to remember that Next Gen magazine article pictured above, which noted that Nintendo had not provided Nintendo 64 development toolkits early on, making programming nearly impossible for some companies at the time, such as Square.  This problem will repeat itself.

Combine that issue with Sony once again offering Square the best licensing fees of any developer on the PlayStation, as well as Sony locking Square down with the same multi-game exclusivity agreement (see the prior Polygon article), and you end up with the same scenario: no Square on Nintendo.  Sony once again gets the big hit, Final Fantasy VII, and history largely repeats itself.

How about Enix though?  Enix was a confirmed 64DD developer as of the November 1996 Shoshinkai show, which was a while after Square had left Nintendo (in February 1996).  Though it is stated that Square convinced Enix to abandon the Nintendo 64 in January 1997, the company still published some games on the cartridge system, such as Mischief Makers.  Dragon Quest VII was originally scheduled to arrive for the 64DD, but it was shifted to the PlayStation, reportedly for "purely economic reasons" regarding cartridges versus CDs (meaning that the cartridge format was probably being considered over the 64DD add-on).

Electronic Gaming Monthly talks about the partial Enix departure in its April 1997 issue.

Since the Nintendo 64 now has a built-in disk drive with no more add-ons to worry about, it is possible, but not guaranteed, that Enix still releases the game for the Nintendo 64, in addition to the PlayStation (Nintendo 64 exclusivity, however, is nearly impossible).  Dragon Quest VII was a two-CD game on the PlayStation though, so concessions, such as a reduction in the scope of the game, would have to be made if Enix desires a Nintendo 64 release.

I give it less than a 50% chance that Enix actually releases its RPG juggernaut on the disk-based Nintendo 64.  Dragon Quest VII became the best-selling PlayStation game in Japan, so if it does arrive on the 64-bit system, it could provide a helpful boost to Nintendo 64 sales overseas, though it is hard to gauge since the game released late in that console cycle (August 2000).  However, Enix could potentially consider other ideas for Nintendo's rewriteable format during Dragon Quest VII's lengthy three-year-long development period.  Perhaps a smaller title comparable to Ogre Battle 64, or something akin to a 3D RPG maker.

Another notable RPG, Earthbound 64 (Mother 3), was specifically in development for the 64DD before being cancelled in 2000 and then reworked for the Game Boy Advance in 2003.  But its cancellation had more to do with the unfocused development team being unable to finish the game before the impending GameCube launch (similar to Sonic X-Treme not being ready for a holiday 1996 release).  Therefore, it is highly doubtful that Earthbound 64 materializes on this unified 64DD console.

I cannot realistically foresee Earthbound 64 releasing, even under my hypothetical scenario.

This doesn't leave much hope for the RPG genre on Nintendo's disk-based system.  Without a big hit to establish the feasibility of a 64-bit RPG market, I don't expect Japanese developers to start dumping their "epic" games on the Nintendo 64.  A small amount of experimental titles could pop up, and perhaps even some ports here and there, but this should remain one of the weakest genres on the console.

Other genres, however, could see increased representation such as racing games, arcade ports, puzzle games, action/adventure games, simulation games, and even 2D games thanks to the lower costs and increased default storage space.  Perhaps some more shmups arrive on the system like they did on the Saturn.

Not to be forgotten, the 64DD's highly promoted rewriteable feature could provide some interesting changes to existing games.  Sports titles would now allow you to update your game's roster and other data, and Excitebike 64's limited course builder would be greatly expanded, allowing you to build larger courses and to create entire championship circuits out of your custom tracks.

Perhaps Rare restores and expands upon the cancelled face-mapping feature in Perfect Dark where you take a picture of yourself with the Game Boy Camera, transfer it to the Nintendo 64 with the Transfer Pak, and then plaster your face over various simulants.  That is, unless Rare gets worried about kids taking pictures of their butts and then having a bunch of "AssSims" running around the game.  But I'm in favor of it.

Oh yes, we all know what we would have done with this.

The rewriteable format could alter Nintendo's business model into a somewhat familiar, yet largely unknown way (to Americans, that is).  Much like what the company did with the Famicom Disk System in Japan, Nintendo could set up disk writer kiosks at various retailers allowing customers to write new data to their existing games (such as new music or courses), or to download entire games onto blank disks, including demos.  Internet-based downloadable content still won't be very feasible during this time, so the kiosks will provide the best and most likely possibility for Nintendo to release any sort of expansion or update data.

These disk writer kiosks allowed Japanese gamers to buy blank discs for a set
price and then write a game onto them for an even lower cost than cartridges.

The same disk could also be rewritten with a new game.

When it comes to first-party support specifically, I expect more games to be released on this unified 64DD console.  Super Mario 64 2 and Ura Zelda both end up releasing, as do U.S. versions of the Mario Artist titles, Sim City 64, and potentially even Animal Crossing, among other games.  The system's software lineup becomes more robust from both a first-party and third-party perspective, and fewer gaming droughts occur (such as the 1997 holiday season).

So now, what is the cumulative result?  I predict that the system's software library expands to around 500 total games, possibly even more.  Depending on the types of games released, including whether they are previously withheld third-party titles of any substance (popular tournament fighters, Resident Evil games, notable RPGs), Nintendo could sell at least a few million more systems in the U.S., and roughly the same amount in Europe and Japan.

I give the revised Nintendo 64 platform lifetime sales of 40 million units, or perhaps even 50 million in the best-case scenario where it receives near-simultaneous releases of some big PlayStation games.  That's a definite improvement, and potentially comparable to the SNES, but the PlayStation still wins the generation with the same 102 million units sold.